* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/09/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 46 44 42 37 30 24 28 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 46 44 42 37 30 24 28 19 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 42 41 38 36 36 38 41 44 DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 47 41 38 39 37 33 36 31 50 53 51 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 1 3 2 4 2 -1 -1 0 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 182 177 179 186 209 227 243 262 254 281 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 22.9 22.1 20.6 18.7 15.0 11.8 11.5 11.7 11.4 10.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 94 90 84 79 73 71 70 69 67 66 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 85 81 76 73 70 68 67 66 65 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -54.6 -56.0 -57.9 -60.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 59 55 51 49 52 55 53 56 63 63 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 27 27 29 29 26 22 21 20 15 13 23 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 136 140 145 118 105 53 58 73 -3 -4 -34 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 54 35 68 70 86 103 71 27 24 16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -25 -41 -68 -61 -43 -58 5 32 95 10 120 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1239 1180 1152 1153 1186 1306 1424 1064 832 583 342 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.6 39.2 40.7 42.3 43.8 47.9 52.8 56.7 59.8 61.8 61.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.4 42.9 41.4 40.0 38.5 35.3 31.4 26.1 19.8 13.2 7.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 19 19 19 21 25 26 24 21 16 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 31 CX,CY: 16/ 27 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 426 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. -3. -8. -13. -17. -21. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 17. 22. 20. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -24. -28. -31. -35. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -8. -15. -21. -17. -26. -34. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/09/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/09/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/09/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)