* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP102011 10/09/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 73 77 81 85 88 83 69 56 49 44 39 V (KT) LAND 65 70 73 77 81 85 88 83 69 47 34 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 71 73 73 71 71 71 72 55 36 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 7 4 5 5 11 7 11 7 23 33 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 1 0 0 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 36 92 139 189 124 97 114 128 132 217 247 275 302 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.2 30.0 30.6 30.4 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 144 144 145 148 152 152 154 167 173 171 155 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.2 -50.9 -50.1 -50.8 -50.7 -51.5 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 7 9 7 9 2 3 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 67 67 69 69 70 73 71 60 49 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 19 17 20 21 22 25 23 14 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -23 -19 -18 -12 28 48 75 82 110 32 -46 -75 200 MB DIV 56 56 61 91 110 110 72 89 74 39 47 -11 -56 700-850 TADV 5 7 3 3 4 0 0 -9 -10 -5 -1 2 -4 LAND (KM) 644 578 514 482 454 321 152 78 83 -47 -208 -445 -558 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.9 18.1 18.6 18.6 20.4 23.9 26.5 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 109.9 109.3 108.6 108.2 107.7 106.6 105.6 105.1 105.2 104.9 104.3 103.7 102.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 5 7 6 1 5 14 15 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 6 5 6 26 35 37 37 11 12 19 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 5. 7. 12. 9. -2. -12. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 12. 16. 20. 23. 18. 4. -9. -16. -21. -26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 JOVA 10/09/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 JOVA 10/09/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##