* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/09/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 41 38 38 34 31 27 29 26 24 21 26 V (KT) LAND 50 45 41 38 38 34 31 27 29 26 24 21 26 V (KT) LGE mod 50 43 38 35 33 31 30 29 28 27 26 24 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 12 18 12 10 24 24 20 13 12 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 -3 -4 1 5 -2 0 2 6 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 47 83 93 125 103 85 60 89 87 81 117 39 71 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.5 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 141 140 139 142 142 145 146 147 149 157 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -51.1 -51.0 -50.1 -50.6 -50.3 -51.3 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 8 700-500 MB RH 64 63 60 59 62 62 59 58 59 64 73 68 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 22 19 22 20 20 19 21 20 21 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 52 56 57 55 62 60 55 81 102 97 76 56 59 200 MB DIV 65 65 76 95 100 91 70 53 72 53 113 9 -12 700-850 TADV 5 4 6 6 6 0 0 1 0 3 5 6 1 LAND (KM) 1427 1384 1342 1298 1252 1135 1009 963 929 778 452 274 246 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.2 15.1 15.0 15.5 16.6 18.1 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 120.6 120.1 119.5 119.0 118.5 117.1 115.1 114.0 112.9 111.1 108.1 107.2 108.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 8 7 5 7 12 11 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 9 12 13 12 10 9 17 11 8 9 5 26 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. 0. -3. -2. -4. 0. -2. -1. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -11. -14. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -12. -16. -19. -23. -21. -24. -26. -29. -24. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/09/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/09/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##