* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992011 10/09/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 38 43 44 42 40 41 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 38 43 32 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 26 26 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 16 16 18 14 19 11 5 21 21 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 1 -1 0 1 10 10 0 3 1 SHEAR DIR 51 45 42 39 43 31 30 26 193 235 254 256 249 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.9 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 142 143 143 146 153 160 161 160 161 159 159 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -51.5 -51.8 -51.0 -51.6 -51.0 -51.9 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 6 5 7 6 8 5 9 5 7 700-500 MB RH 73 76 75 76 77 78 81 79 81 79 74 67 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 7 10 850 MB ENV VOR 23 29 18 16 20 83 99 88 59 50 25 14 -9 200 MB DIV 40 60 56 65 82 97 140 97 100 58 78 52 31 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -4 0 11 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 489 478 468 441 414 322 200 21 -159 -176 -79 -101 -153 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.9 14.1 15.8 17.8 20.1 22.0 22.9 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 96.4 96.5 96.6 96.7 96.7 97.1 97.6 98.0 98.5 98.6 98.6 98.8 99.3 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 3 4 6 8 9 11 10 7 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 5 5 9 9 14 0 3 8 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 26. 31. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 18. 19. 17. 15. 16. 20. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992011 INVEST 10/09/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992011 INVEST 10/09/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##