* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP102011 10/09/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 81 85 86 91 89 84 69 60 56 52 45 V (KT) LAND 75 78 81 85 86 91 89 84 59 37 30 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 75 78 81 82 82 81 80 80 63 38 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 8 6 9 13 10 12 15 27 33 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -6 -6 -2 -6 -5 -1 2 -2 4 4 0 SHEAR DIR 83 85 77 103 97 109 107 119 172 222 250 274 302 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.6 30.3 30.6 30.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 146 147 148 149 152 154 160 169 172 171 161 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -50.2 -50.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 6 6 2 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 69 70 71 71 74 72 62 57 48 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 20 22 21 24 23 21 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -20 -19 -12 2 37 63 81 117 81 52 -2 -67 200 MB DIV 47 39 69 90 106 125 76 99 58 69 18 -5 -53 700-850 TADV 7 5 2 6 5 0 -3 -7 -8 0 -2 0 -3 LAND (KM) 609 556 506 473 448 354 230 98 -58 -105 -238 -408 -587 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.8 16.3 17.2 18.3 19.7 21.7 24.2 26.3 28.4 LONG(DEG W) 109.5 108.9 108.2 107.6 107.0 106.1 105.4 104.9 104.5 104.3 104.2 104.0 103.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 9 11 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 5 7 11 32 33 37 47 8 12 16 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -3. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -9. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 2. 7. 6. 5. -8. -13. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 11. 16. 14. 9. -6. -15. -19. -23. -30. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 JOVA 10/09/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 JOVA 10/09/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##