* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/09/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 31 30 28 24 22 19 21 20 15 19 23 V (KT) LAND 40 35 31 30 28 24 22 19 21 20 15 19 23 V (KT) LGE mod 40 34 29 27 25 23 21 21 20 20 19 18 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 4 6 11 15 18 11 24 24 20 10 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 -1 -1 0 0 1 3 2 0 2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 88 109 147 125 82 113 83 88 85 104 93 96 169 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.2 29.0 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 140 139 138 138 140 142 144 144 147 154 161 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -51.3 -50.8 -50.4 -50.8 -51.0 -51.5 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 62 60 58 62 62 55 49 52 56 58 68 61 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 18 17 19 19 17 17 16 17 17 13 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 59 53 45 48 58 44 57 110 102 93 62 56 59 200 MB DIV 63 56 78 75 85 52 6 59 45 47 11 9 0 700-850 TADV 4 3 5 6 3 0 -1 -2 0 3 6 6 0 LAND (KM) 1390 1337 1282 1228 1175 1075 975 909 854 657 351 204 231 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 16.3 17.7 19.2 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 120.3 119.7 119.0 118.5 117.9 116.6 115.0 113.7 112.2 110.3 107.8 107.2 107.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 12 11 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 11 9 8 8 25 10 8 8 17 34 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -8. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -10. -12. -16. -18. -21. -19. -20. -25. -20. -17. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/09/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/09/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##