* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992011 10/09/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 20 20 22 23 26 31 30 29 29 31 V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 20 20 22 23 26 31 30 29 26 26 V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 17 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 21 18 20 16 20 21 21 16 20 22 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 0 1 4 10 6 2 9 7 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 58 60 62 65 68 73 53 70 57 52 29 58 58 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 141 141 143 147 151 154 153 155 155 154 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 7 6 8 6 700-500 MB RH 74 73 73 76 78 76 79 75 77 72 74 75 79 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 31 29 32 41 22 36 17 27 14 36 55 78 200 MB DIV 62 52 68 84 87 90 110 102 114 116 114 86 97 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -8 -8 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 567 543 524 484 448 365 272 188 78 37 17 -39 -80 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 21 27 13 4 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 32. 35. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -3. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 11. 10. 9. 9. 11. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992011 INVEST 10/09/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992011 INVEST 10/09/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##