* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP102011 10/09/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 81 84 86 90 85 70 60 56 51 47 42 V (KT) LAND 75 77 81 84 86 90 85 70 47 33 29 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 75 77 78 79 80 80 81 81 59 37 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 3 5 2 10 17 18 12 19 28 40 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -5 -2 -3 -6 -5 -1 0 0 4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 82 109 128 85 49 117 104 119 201 251 268 279 308 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.8 30.4 30.6 30.5 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 147 147 149 150 152 156 163 169 171 170 162 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.3 -51.3 -50.6 -51.0 -50.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 7 8 7 9 6 10 6 9 2 700-500 MB RH 70 67 69 71 71 73 73 73 73 65 57 48 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 18 22 22 22 23 21 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -12 -5 13 20 59 60 112 117 64 66 7 -19 200 MB DIV 24 52 77 86 102 112 82 48 72 61 -8 -25 -64 700-850 TADV 6 2 4 6 4 -2 -5 -16 -3 -1 0 -4 -7 LAND (KM) 554 502 458 416 378 304 214 88 -75 -129 -260 -423 -546 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.1 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.6 17.1 18.3 20.1 22.2 24.2 26.0 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 108.3 107.5 107.0 106.4 105.7 105.0 104.7 104.6 104.3 103.9 103.5 102.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 5 4 5 8 10 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 7 13 30 33 33 38 8 10 12 20 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -5. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 1. -9. -15. -15. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 11. 15. 10. -5. -15. -19. -24. -28. -33. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 JOVA 10/09/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 JOVA 10/09/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##