* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992011 10/09/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 35 38 38 36 37 38 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 35 38 38 32 29 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 23 25 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 16 17 15 11 18 17 24 12 13 7 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -2 -1 0 6 5 2 3 12 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 63 70 64 69 68 68 69 62 64 22 52 245 250 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 142 143 145 149 152 153 156 156 154 151 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -51.9 -52.8 -51.7 -52.8 -51.6 -52.4 -51.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 6 4 7 4 7 6 8 6 700-500 MB RH 75 75 75 77 78 78 78 76 76 75 78 81 81 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 27 26 32 22 13 25 21 30 29 59 73 85 200 MB DIV 49 56 71 82 63 117 90 99 95 107 75 95 74 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 -3 -6 -2 0 3 0 LAND (KM) 522 515 479 442 405 323 217 129 71 -14 -118 -188 -32 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.9 12.6 13.2 13.6 14.4 15.7 16.9 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 96.0 95.6 95.1 94.8 94.4 93.7 93.0 92.4 92.0 91.9 91.9 92.2 92.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 3 3 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 2 1 1 2 2 6 11 1 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 25. 30. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 16. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 10. 13. 13. 11. 12. 13. 13. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992011 INVEST 10/09/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992011 INVEST 10/09/11 12 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART