* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 10/09/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 44 45 43 39 36 30 26 22 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 37 32 30 29 27 27 27 27 29 29 30 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 31 30 28 27 27 27 27 29 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 39 31 21 21 29 34 55 43 41 38 34 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 0 -4 -2 -6 0 -8 0 0 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 198 207 210 196 197 246 242 244 232 238 232 206 187 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 27.5 26.1 24.5 22.6 19.8 18.1 15.2 13.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 150 147 143 129 114 102 92 81 76 69 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 131 127 122 108 97 89 81 74 70 65 63 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -53.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -51.6 -50.9 -50.6 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 3 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 60 57 59 57 55 51 52 59 67 73 85 86 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 15 14 15 12 9 8 9 9 9 10 6 850 MB ENV VOR 88 93 67 67 84 56 67 35 53 131 168 214 232 200 MB DIV 102 103 79 68 77 60 41 69 67 86 80 51 53 700-850 TADV 28 49 40 15 26 16 4 40 43 32 54 10 10 LAND (KM) 80 30 -14 -67 -102 -165 -289 -357 -482 -435 -556 -804 -990 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.2 28.9 29.6 30.3 31.5 32.9 34.8 37.4 40.4 43.8 46.5 48.1 LONG(DEG W) 79.4 80.3 81.1 81.9 82.7 83.7 83.9 83.2 81.8 80.1 79.2 79.8 81.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 7 9 12 15 17 16 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 53 2 0 27 22 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -8. -15. -20. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. -24. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -7. -8. -8. -7. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 8. 4. 1. -5. -9. -13. -24. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 10/09/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 10/09/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 10/09/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)