* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP102011 10/09/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 85 86 86 89 81 61 56 52 47 43 39 V (KT) LAND 80 83 85 86 86 89 81 55 37 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 80 82 82 82 81 79 77 66 41 31 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 10 9 10 15 16 15 11 21 29 33 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -2 -4 -5 -6 0 2 1 0 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 110 126 94 89 124 105 144 180 243 259 274 291 303 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.5 30.2 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 147 148 149 152 154 159 166 170 170 170 167 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.4 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 6 8 700-500 MB RH 67 66 69 70 69 72 74 71 66 59 57 49 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 23 21 20 22 19 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -2 15 17 38 61 100 118 97 73 50 18 -33 200 MB DIV 46 70 82 88 96 72 100 80 78 37 7 -24 -49 700-850 TADV 1 3 4 2 -1 -5 -5 -15 1 -2 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 498 458 425 388 354 252 122 -24 -72 -135 -223 -349 -459 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.2 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.9 18.0 19.4 21.1 22.7 24.2 25.7 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 107.7 107.1 106.6 106.1 105.3 104.8 104.6 104.5 104.4 104.4 104.2 104.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 8 8 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 10 26 32 33 35 50 9 9 13 19 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 1. 4. 0. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 9. 1. -19. -24. -28. -33. -37. -41. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 JOVA 10/09/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 JOVA 10/09/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##