* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/09/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 44 42 40 40 39 36 38 36 33 33 V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 44 42 40 40 39 36 38 36 33 33 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 46 45 43 40 38 36 34 31 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 12 14 12 16 20 16 18 16 16 18 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 6 4 1 8 7 9 3 -4 -4 5 SHEAR DIR 123 121 128 133 109 88 73 78 95 79 74 78 95 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.6 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.4 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 138 138 137 139 143 145 144 144 147 150 151 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.2 -51.7 -51.1 -50.5 -50.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 6 5 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 56 51 48 50 51 57 63 60 60 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 14 16 15 14 15 14 13 14 13 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 51 41 47 43 51 59 89 100 77 58 53 75 68 200 MB DIV 39 56 55 55 61 -2 57 41 58 57 30 52 31 700-850 TADV 4 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 -4 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 1320 1266 1205 1148 1094 1010 967 881 685 473 295 190 165 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.5 15.1 15.3 16.0 16.9 17.9 18.6 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 119.6 119.0 118.4 117.7 117.0 115.6 114.1 112.4 110.4 108.6 107.3 106.6 106.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 8 7 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 13 10 8 7 6 10 12 8 10 5 25 36 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -1. -3. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -9. -7. -9. -12. -12. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/09/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/09/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##