* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992011 10/09/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 32 34 35 34 34 34 32 34 35 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 32 34 35 34 34 34 29 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 28 28 28 28 27 26 25 25 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 19 16 15 22 21 23 18 17 20 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 0 2 7 3 3 7 7 3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 61 61 69 79 70 61 76 65 57 28 39 45 53 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 143 142 143 145 147 150 153 155 154 154 155 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 7 6 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 75 76 76 78 79 78 79 78 75 75 80 78 80 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 11 10 9 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 21 33 25 16 21 9 21 14 31 49 71 87 200 MB DIV 45 85 82 85 129 125 120 112 104 117 116 97 97 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 0 0 -5 -2 -4 -4 0 5 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 534 522 481 444 407 323 235 163 92 14 -71 -92 -47 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 0 0 2 4 11 22 14 1 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -3. -5. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 7. 9. 10. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992011 INVEST 10/09/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992011 INVEST 10/09/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##