* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 10/10/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 47 48 48 45 40 37 32 28 23 16 V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 30 29 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 34 31 29 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 41 33 25 27 25 27 46 40 35 36 36 32 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 0 0 0 0 -4 0 0 0 -2 1 12 SHEAR DIR 206 211 197 182 195 236 239 233 224 220 215 198 176 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.8 26.6 25.2 23.5 21.3 18.7 16.6 14.0 11.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 147 140 133 119 106 96 85 77 72 67 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 127 120 113 100 91 84 77 71 67 64 63 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.3 -53.9 -53.2 -52.4 -53.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 4 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 62 58 57 55 53 52 53 63 71 79 81 83 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 14 15 15 11 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 67 62 80 67 56 55 55 79 142 169 198 275 200 MB DIV 114 81 59 72 84 42 43 70 92 55 54 51 55 700-850 TADV 47 51 20 30 23 6 38 -5 7 8 10 -6 -23 LAND (KM) 47 -4 -58 -82 -116 -190 -278 -396 -475 -526 -693 -879 -896 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.8 29.6 30.4 31.2 32.6 34.2 36.2 38.9 42.1 45.1 47.4 49.4 LONG(DEG W) 80.0 80.9 81.8 82.3 82.7 82.9 82.7 82.1 80.9 80.0 79.9 80.1 80.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 8 7 9 13 15 16 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 27 21 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -9. -13. -17. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -25. -29. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 5. 0. -3. -8. -12. -17. -24. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 10/10/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 10/10/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 10/10/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)