* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP102011 10/10/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 89 89 89 87 74 54 49 46 41 36 34 V (KT) LAND 85 87 89 89 89 87 74 44 32 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 85 86 86 86 85 82 79 47 33 29 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 7 10 14 11 20 16 17 21 27 28 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -8 -6 -5 -7 -2 -3 0 0 3 3 5 -2 SHEAR DIR 111 97 122 123 125 154 152 210 251 262 270 296 300 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.9 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 148 149 150 153 156 163 168 168 169 169 169 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.1 -50.6 -50.9 -50.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 8 7 9 6 10 6 9 5 9 700-500 MB RH 65 70 70 71 73 73 69 65 62 54 56 46 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 23 23 22 22 21 15 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 12 16 30 47 65 105 103 101 68 12 -24 -19 200 MB DIV 59 71 65 85 77 83 75 67 73 23 -22 -57 -35 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -2 -5 -4 -8 -6 0 2 1 3 -4 LAND (KM) 430 391 359 319 280 162 14 -96 -108 -154 -223 -304 -378 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.7 19.0 20.4 22.0 23.2 24.1 25.1 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 107.6 107.0 106.4 106.0 105.6 105.0 104.6 104.4 104.4 104.4 104.3 104.2 104.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 8 7 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 6 11 29 31 33 34 44 8 10 10 12 16 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -7. -21. -21. -20. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. -11. -31. -36. -39. -44. -49. -51. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 JOVA 10/10/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 JOVA 10/10/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##