* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/10/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 43 41 43 40 37 37 34 36 36 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 43 41 43 40 37 37 34 36 36 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 46 45 43 41 39 37 33 30 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 13 12 14 16 16 20 22 17 22 22 18 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 6 5 4 4 5 6 15 -3 -1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 109 138 120 100 95 85 81 82 91 72 97 95 77 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 138 139 140 144 146 146 146 148 151 151 150 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -52.5 -51.7 -51.9 -50.8 -51.0 -50.5 -51.8 -51.3 -52.2 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 6 6 8 6 9 700-500 MB RH 61 58 55 52 52 51 52 53 59 61 68 64 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 14 14 13 12 15 14 13 12 10 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 46 44 43 54 65 74 105 79 61 48 47 66 78 200 MB DIV 43 44 52 65 72 28 28 27 95 59 84 32 55 700-850 TADV 4 1 -1 2 2 0 -3 16 15 6 -1 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1282 1217 1153 1108 1066 992 925 776 560 377 226 171 176 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.1 15.0 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.4 17.6 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 119.0 118.3 117.6 116.9 116.2 114.6 112.8 110.9 108.9 107.2 105.7 105.0 104.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 9 8 6 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 7 7 10 16 8 10 8 12 33 34 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. 1. 0. -2. -2. -5. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -2. -5. -8. -8. -11. -9. -9. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/10/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/10/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##