* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992011 10/10/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 33 35 35 34 30 29 29 31 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 33 35 35 34 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 22 22 24 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 20 14 17 19 19 18 16 23 20 19 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 2 3 6 7 5 1 10 5 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 69 69 78 73 65 68 71 62 17 24 31 52 49 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.4 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 142 142 146 150 153 155 155 154 152 154 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.9 -51.8 -52.7 -51.5 -52.7 -51.5 -52.9 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 5 4 6 5 7 5 8 5 6 700-500 MB RH 78 77 79 80 82 81 79 77 78 77 82 84 85 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 10 10 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 31 28 22 14 24 17 28 28 44 54 88 102 200 MB DIV 89 93 86 127 140 97 122 137 157 105 113 94 88 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 1 0 -3 -3 -6 -3 5 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 525 501 476 449 422 312 201 129 66 -3 -79 -94 -55 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.2 11.3 12.1 13.0 13.7 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.3 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 95.5 95.2 94.8 94.6 94.4 93.8 93.3 93.1 93.0 92.6 92.0 91.8 92.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 2 3 5 4 4 3 3 2 0 2 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 4 7 25 35 14 4 4 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 25. 30. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 15. 16. 16. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 5. 4. 4. 6. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992011 INVEST 10/10/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992011 INVEST 10/10/11 00 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART