* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 10/10/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 47 47 46 42 41 38 29 24 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 40 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 29 30 30 30 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 29 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 26 24 28 23 37 44 41 42 42 38 27 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -1 -4 0 0 2 -2 3 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 214 202 186 191 230 240 232 213 219 221 212 194 171 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.3 26.0 24.6 23.0 20.1 17.8 14.5 11.6 10.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 147 142 136 126 113 103 94 82 76 69 64 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 128 121 115 106 97 91 84 75 70 66 61 60 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 -53.6 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.5 -52.1 -51.6 -50.5 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 4 2 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 55 53 51 49 47 48 54 63 69 81 86 84 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 16 15 13 10 8 10 11 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 51 71 69 46 52 52 64 91 114 187 240 256 200 MB DIV 64 64 66 77 73 47 80 108 91 88 71 69 17 700-850 TADV 47 27 31 14 19 20 27 25 24 39 25 5 4 LAND (KM) -22 -80 -97 -119 -169 -311 -329 -358 -266 -449 -689 -787 -872 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.7 30.4 31.0 31.6 33.0 34.9 37.4 40.6 44.2 47.4 49.5 49.7 LONG(DEG W) 81.2 82.1 82.9 83.5 84.0 84.1 82.6 80.0 77.6 76.5 77.2 78.9 80.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 9 8 7 9 14 17 18 17 14 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 40 27 23 23 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -2. -8. -13. -18. -20. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -17. -21. -26. -29. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -5. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 7. 6. 2. 1. -2. -11. -16. -21. -28. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 10/10/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 10/10/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 10/10/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)