* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/10/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 44 45 46 44 39 40 36 35 32 30 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 44 45 46 44 39 40 36 35 32 30 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 44 43 43 42 40 37 35 33 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 11 15 13 21 15 24 21 18 26 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 4 0 1 2 0 -1 0 -3 4 3 SHEAR DIR 122 99 90 82 80 105 101 91 82 84 85 89 88 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 141 142 146 147 148 148 150 152 153 154 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 5 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 56 56 51 52 49 55 61 64 69 70 70 70 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 12 13 15 14 11 13 10 10 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 55 45 43 60 68 99 94 68 47 44 48 59 68 200 MB DIV 28 33 48 47 36 86 40 63 105 92 75 53 72 700-850 TADV 4 1 2 4 2 0 2 7 -1 -5 3 4 8 LAND (KM) 1283 1223 1165 1120 1077 1008 928 708 469 324 264 219 182 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.8 15.3 16.1 16.6 16.5 16.5 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 118.8 118.1 117.3 116.6 115.8 114.1 112.3 110.1 107.8 106.1 105.0 104.2 103.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 10 7 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 10 12 14 11 7 18 5 30 36 37 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 1. -2. 0. -4. -4. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 0. -6. -5. -9. -10. -13. -15. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/10/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/10/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##