* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992011 10/10/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 30 32 31 32 34 35 35 37 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 30 32 31 32 34 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 23 23 23 25 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 15 17 21 15 18 11 16 11 6 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 7 7 0 8 7 3 0 -2 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 66 71 71 71 61 85 57 39 22 47 56 98 168 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.5 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 142 143 143 147 152 155 156 154 154 153 154 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 4 5 4 6 6 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 78 80 81 81 80 81 81 82 83 85 88 85 85 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 12 11 11 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 33 29 23 30 13 20 25 40 70 74 106 117 200 MB DIV 90 97 138 144 134 123 135 141 152 149 141 119 94 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 1 -3 -2 -9 -3 -5 -2 -2 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 489 466 445 409 374 285 212 117 23 -24 -36 -36 -34 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 3 3 5 5 5 4 1 1 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 2 7 22 27 45 44 44 44 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 26. 30. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 5. 7. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 12. 13. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992011 INVEST 10/10/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992011 INVEST 10/10/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##