* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 10/10/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 44 44 40 35 31 27 22 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 29 30 30 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 29 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 21 30 27 30 47 39 42 36 32 24 24 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 1 -4 -4 -3 0 0 1 1 5 4 0 SHEAR DIR 215 205 201 240 268 252 243 231 228 222 200 155 140 SST (C) 27.4 26.9 26.3 25.8 25.3 24.0 22.9 20.5 17.5 15.5 12.8 10.8 10.7 POT. INT. (KT) 129 122 115 110 105 98 93 83 75 71 67 63 58 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 105 98 93 89 86 83 76 70 67 64 61 56 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -53.9 -53.3 -52.9 -52.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.0 -50.7 -49.8 -49.7 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 2 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 55 55 51 50 48 47 51 64 73 82 84 79 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 11 10 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 72 62 45 49 49 66 69 120 169 209 253 276 200 MB DIV 53 66 58 49 27 31 52 61 48 61 48 40 24 700-850 TADV 27 29 19 10 -1 0 -12 14 3 4 -10 -2 6 LAND (KM) -72 -76 -114 -155 -205 -307 -297 -270 -256 -469 -695 -790 -789 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.5 31.1 31.5 31.9 33.3 35.3 37.9 41.0 44.4 47.4 49.2 49.3 LONG(DEG W) 82.7 83.4 84.0 84.4 84.8 83.9 81.6 78.8 77.0 76.5 77.3 78.9 78.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 7 5 5 11 16 17 17 16 13 6 0 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -9. -14. -17. -18. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -22. -26. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 4. 0. -5. -9. -13. -18. -21. -26. -30. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 10/10/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 10/10/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 10/10/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)