* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP102011 10/10/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 114 115 113 107 92 75 66 59 52 43 36 31 V (KT) LAND 110 114 115 113 107 92 57 37 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 110 114 114 112 110 104 70 41 31 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 8 13 8 18 14 16 25 29 32 38 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -4 0 4 1 0 1 -2 1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 47 115 109 157 144 182 251 245 259 280 291 287 290 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.9 30.4 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.2 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 155 156 159 163 169 170 168 168 167 165 160 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -50.8 -51.4 -51.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 9 6 10 6 9 5 8 4 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 70 72 74 71 66 59 53 49 45 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 22 23 21 17 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 24 31 49 54 97 105 82 58 33 32 12 -5 200 MB DIV 53 81 83 73 97 98 84 49 7 10 0 -28 -10 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -4 -3 -6 -4 1 -1 4 3 6 2 4 LAND (KM) 400 351 304 258 211 88 -80 -89 -111 -178 -267 -371 -482 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.2 17.5 18.5 20.3 21.8 22.9 23.9 24.9 25.9 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 107.0 106.6 106.1 105.9 105.6 105.1 104.6 104.5 104.7 104.7 104.5 104.1 103.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 5 7 9 6 5 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 26 30 32 33 38 17 12 10 10 12 12 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -7. -11. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 8. 8. 5. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -5. -13. -22. -23. -23. -23. -24. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 3. -3. -18. -35. -44. -51. -58. -67. -74. -79. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 JOVA 10/10/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 JOVA 10/10/11 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING