* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/10/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 30 29 28 28 28 27 27 25 28 25 27 V (KT) LAND 35 33 30 29 28 28 28 27 27 25 28 25 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 29 28 26 25 24 23 21 20 20 20 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 14 11 11 18 19 22 17 19 18 23 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 3 2 2 0 0 3 -2 0 3 4 2 SHEAR DIR 94 89 94 101 81 91 81 100 85 68 73 84 89 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 138 139 141 145 148 151 154 155 158 159 159 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -51.0 -51.4 -51.1 -52.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 9 7 9 7 700-500 MB RH 56 50 51 48 47 51 55 62 66 65 68 70 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 12 13 13 14 14 14 13 11 12 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 45 45 56 61 59 86 96 62 58 39 48 66 86 200 MB DIV 31 55 62 52 47 65 76 95 79 47 45 52 24 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 0 0 3 9 1 0 -2 -6 2 8 LAND (KM) 1222 1165 1112 1070 1032 936 761 545 369 280 237 205 201 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 14.9 15.0 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.0 16.9 16.7 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 118.1 117.3 116.5 115.8 115.0 113.1 110.9 108.9 107.2 106.0 105.1 104.3 103.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 8 10 11 9 7 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 12 13 13 8 10 7 14 30 34 38 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -3. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -10. -7. -10. -8. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/10/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/10/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##