* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992011 10/10/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 36 41 43 48 50 52 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 19 16 9 9 11 5 3 7 6 5 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 4 4 3 0 -1 -4 -2 0 3 2 SHEAR DIR 67 64 68 68 92 67 39 360 320 234 326 1 24 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.9 29.4 29.5 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.6 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 146 146 152 158 159 152 150 153 160 165 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -51.9 -52.7 -51.7 -52.6 -51.8 -52.4 -51.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 4 6 4 7 6 7 5 8 7 700-500 MB RH 84 82 84 83 81 83 85 86 88 84 83 79 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 6 7 9 12 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 34 24 22 28 18 30 28 48 87 84 118 124 119 200 MB DIV 66 85 103 102 91 141 126 133 98 132 101 78 45 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 -3 -1 -3 -1 2 0 0 -1 -10 -21 LAND (KM) 402 408 414 371 333 227 69 -109 -108 -53 -107 -227 -118 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.7 15.2 16.8 18.0 18.6 18.6 18.3 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 94.6 94.9 95.2 95.7 96.1 96.7 97.0 96.8 96.3 96.3 96.9 98.1 99.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 7 7 7 5 2 4 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 2 4 9 16 15 32 32 2 0 1 0 0 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 14. 21. 27. 31. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -3. 0. 4. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 11. 16. 18. 23. 25. 27. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992011 INVEST 10/10/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992011 INVEST 10/10/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##