* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/10/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 24 22 22 21 21 17 20 23 29 30 32 V (KT) LAND 30 26 24 22 22 21 21 17 20 23 29 30 32 V (KT) LGE mod 30 25 22 21 19 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 13 14 16 27 19 19 22 21 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 3 5 5 -1 0 3 -3 3 2 6 SHEAR DIR 94 91 76 80 83 86 102 93 73 79 82 85 71 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 139 141 143 146 149 151 154 158 158 157 157 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.4 -51.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 47 47 44 44 49 55 58 64 65 63 65 70 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 9 10 10 14 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 45 61 84 89 111 105 79 63 58 53 68 72 82 200 MB DIV 52 50 47 72 84 59 85 89 43 25 62 33 43 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 0 5 2 0 -3 -2 -3 -1 -8 LAND (KM) 1165 1116 1072 1024 983 876 665 482 324 250 224 228 236 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.9 14.9 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.0 17.1 16.8 16.4 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 117.3 116.5 115.7 114.9 114.0 112.0 110.0 108.3 106.8 105.6 104.8 104.2 103.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 10 9 8 7 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 13 13 11 7 16 4 25 32 36 38 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -3. -2. -1. 4. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -13. -10. -7. -1. 0. 2. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/10/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/10/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##