* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992011 10/10/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 30 33 37 38 36 35 37 40 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 30 33 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 18 15 11 15 14 7 12 12 14 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 1 0 2 2 -2 -3 -6 -2 11 16 SHEAR DIR 72 69 71 81 67 44 40 50 247 227 217 153 110 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 29.0 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.4 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 146 146 147 153 158 156 150 149 152 159 166 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 5 4 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 81 84 84 83 82 85 85 87 85 82 83 79 81 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 25 26 19 12 27 31 72 94 101 125 151 149 200 MB DIV 88 128 134 108 122 163 157 162 138 117 104 87 68 700-850 TADV 2 2 -2 -2 -2 -1 5 3 0 0 4 15 29 LAND (KM) 380 393 407 368 323 200 24 -113 -11 0 -68 -173 -16 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.9 15.5 17.1 18.1 18.4 18.1 17.4 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 94.4 94.8 95.1 95.5 95.9 96.3 96.1 95.3 94.5 94.7 95.4 96.9 99.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 4 5 5 7 8 8 4 2 6 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 8 20 20 36 41 3 0 0 0 0 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 14. 21. 27. 31. 34. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 13. 11. 10. 12. 15. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992011 INVEST 10/10/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992011 INVEST 10/10/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##