* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP102011 10/11/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 111 109 107 101 88 78 68 60 51 42 34 27 V (KT) LAND 110 111 109 107 101 57 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 110 110 108 106 104 61 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 19 18 18 20 25 24 29 31 38 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 -2 4 5 0 0 1 2 2 3 6 SHEAR DIR 107 119 137 168 201 241 239 266 286 306 298 296 315 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 160 162 165 168 169 167 167 169 169 164 155 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 7 8 6 10 7 9 6 8 3 6 700-500 MB RH 68 69 69 70 73 71 66 61 52 46 39 35 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 21 16 17 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 40 42 67 84 96 85 63 27 10 3 -6 -16 200 MB DIV 87 87 83 98 40 91 65 0 4 -16 -5 -23 -40 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -6 -9 -4 1 0 3 4 8 2 3 14 LAND (KM) 290 228 167 100 34 -83 -99 -125 -116 -163 -267 -374 -497 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.5 19.0 20.5 22.0 22.7 23.0 23.9 25.5 26.9 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 106.2 105.9 105.5 105.3 105.0 104.5 104.5 104.5 104.7 104.9 105.1 105.0 104.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 8 5 3 3 6 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 33 34 37 40 13 12 10 10 11 13 11 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -11. -14. -19. -22. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -17. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -6. -13. -15. -16. -16. -15. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -3. -9. -22. -32. -42. -50. -59. -68. -76. -83. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 JOVA 10/11/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 JOVA 10/11/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##