* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/11/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 38 38 33 36 34 38 40 41 40 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 38 38 33 36 34 38 40 41 40 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 34 32 29 27 26 27 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 15 18 15 18 22 21 16 11 22 23 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 3 1 6 2 0 4 2 1 2 6 SHEAR DIR 90 81 89 102 110 94 96 87 92 85 62 77 81 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.6 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 140 143 144 148 151 155 158 160 160 159 159 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.1 -52.1 -51.3 -51.8 -51.4 -52.1 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 7 8 5 5 700-500 MB RH 50 44 43 49 51 57 63 66 68 66 69 72 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 13 10 12 10 11 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 55 74 80 113 119 98 74 59 49 54 67 84 107 200 MB DIV 51 63 79 99 60 87 94 82 62 59 42 65 64 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 0 6 2 2 0 -2 -2 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1118 1076 1038 980 929 748 525 329 221 170 168 174 168 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.0 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.7 16.5 17.2 17.4 17.2 16.8 16.5 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 116.6 115.9 115.1 114.2 113.2 110.9 108.9 107.1 105.6 104.5 103.8 103.3 103.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 11 10 8 6 5 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 13 12 8 10 6 22 33 38 39 38 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. 1. -2. 0. 2. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -2. 1. -1. 3. 5. 6. 5. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/11/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/11/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##