* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP102011 10/11/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 93 85 81 76 72 66 61 55 47 41 38 V (KT) LAND 100 96 93 85 71 49 37 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 100 96 93 91 88 53 38 32 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 11 21 11 16 16 22 21 24 26 25 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -2 3 5 8 2 -2 -1 2 2 6 9 9 SHEAR DIR 115 137 189 203 243 247 250 272 289 295 287 311 327 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 161 164 166 170 169 169 168 169 169 169 165 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 8 7 7 8 8 7 8 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 69 68 72 72 66 64 62 55 51 48 45 43 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 18 16 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 38 45 77 95 84 72 49 41 3 3 -7 3 200 MB DIV 78 100 84 48 87 70 40 11 -14 -4 -13 0 -17 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -6 -4 -2 2 -2 5 9 4 12 5 10 LAND (KM) 250 186 122 54 -3 -24 -34 -44 -89 -156 -208 -245 -297 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.9 19.5 20.9 22.0 22.9 23.6 24.4 25.1 26.0 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 106.0 105.6 105.2 105.1 105.0 105.1 105.3 105.5 105.6 105.5 105.5 105.9 106.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 6 7 5 4 3 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 32 34 35 39 0 18 68 66 13 12 13 13 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -15. -19. -24. -28. -34. -39. -45. -53. -59. -62. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 JOVA 10/11/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 JOVA 10/11/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##