* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/11/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 27 25 21 24 26 32 34 39 40 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 27 25 21 24 26 32 34 39 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 26 25 23 21 19 18 18 18 19 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 12 12 13 25 22 19 15 17 18 22 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 5 6 1 -2 3 1 1 0 7 1 SHEAR DIR 101 97 98 128 105 94 96 93 74 67 70 51 70 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.8 29.4 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 142 144 146 149 153 158 161 161 159 157 159 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 7 7 8 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 45 45 50 50 52 57 62 67 68 66 69 75 81 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 12 9 10 9 11 12 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 74 62 93 86 98 72 51 59 62 65 62 79 86 200 MB DIV 24 51 93 56 63 99 81 87 54 57 49 47 36 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 4 4 5 -2 -2 -1 -1 2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1065 1023 987 921 864 635 406 250 153 148 217 235 200 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.1 15.0 15.2 15.4 16.1 16.9 17.3 17.4 16.9 16.1 15.9 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 115.9 115.1 114.3 113.3 112.2 109.9 107.8 106.0 104.5 103.6 103.3 103.1 102.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 11 10 8 6 5 3 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 13 8 8 10 6 32 37 39 38 37 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -2. -3. 0. 1. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -6. -4. 2. 4. 9. 10. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/11/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/11/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##