* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992011 10/11/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 30 34 37 37 39 38 40 43 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 30 28 27 30 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 23 19 12 13 11 9 3 10 7 8 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 2 1 0 -3 -4 -6 -3 1 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 70 77 89 95 89 73 27 282 246 259 313 345 11 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.3 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.2 29.8 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 150 152 154 158 156 150 149 150 156 163 165 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 5 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 84 85 83 83 83 84 86 87 83 79 76 74 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 10 8 7 8 8 7 9 8 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 20 21 12 14 12 28 60 86 87 101 113 127 116 200 MB DIV 131 107 114 152 132 139 139 129 91 66 73 24 25 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -1 -4 -5 -4 -1 1 0 -8 -11 -14 LAND (KM) 333 326 321 273 203 46 -91 -68 1 -9 -138 -201 -103 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.5 14.0 15.4 16.8 18.0 18.7 18.9 18.7 18.6 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 94.1 94.5 94.8 95.2 95.5 95.8 95.6 95.2 95.2 96.0 97.3 99.4 101.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 6 6 7 7 5 3 5 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 9 21 25 29 41 3 0 0 0 1 4 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 31. 34. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -1. -2. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 12. 12. 14. 13. 15. 18. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992011 INVEST 10/11/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 127.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992011 INVEST 10/11/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##