* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP102011 10/11/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 99 96 92 90 86 80 73 65 58 49 43 39 V (KT) LAND 100 99 96 81 64 42 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 100 98 96 94 67 42 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 18 14 7 15 19 22 22 25 27 20 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 0 3 1 5 -1 4 3 2 10 11 7 SHEAR DIR 108 146 186 197 204 238 257 282 299 290 303 329 342 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.5 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 162 164 166 169 169 168 168 169 169 169 169 163 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 6 9 7 10 6 9 4 6 2 700-500 MB RH 70 71 74 66 65 62 60 52 46 43 33 37 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 13 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 43 70 91 90 82 73 49 26 22 22 -10 -31 200 MB DIV 99 85 34 66 89 89 34 -17 -27 -9 -20 -25 -9 700-850 TADV -6 -14 -10 -11 1 -1 5 7 15 4 12 7 6 LAND (KM) 206 130 54 -8 -56 -37 -69 -75 -96 -156 -200 -228 -321 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.5 20.2 21.4 22.0 22.7 23.5 24.3 25.2 26.3 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 105.7 105.4 105.0 105.0 104.9 104.9 104.9 105.0 105.4 105.4 105.7 106.3 106.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 7 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 34 35 39 0 60 76 76 11 12 12 14 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -10. -14. -20. -27. -35. -42. -51. -57. -61. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 JOVA 10/11/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 JOVA 10/11/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##