* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/11/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 31 31 34 35 35 39 46 46 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 31 31 34 35 35 39 46 46 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 27 27 26 24 22 21 20 21 22 23 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 10 13 18 19 20 16 20 22 20 24 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 3 6 4 3 0 0 1 -1 2 6 8 SHEAR DIR 102 108 108 95 83 92 92 97 79 82 80 80 86 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.5 29.0 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 142 144 145 150 154 158 160 160 159 156 157 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.3 -51.8 -51.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 9 7 9 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 44 47 49 53 54 60 64 63 64 67 67 73 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 11 11 10 13 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 71 92 95 100 87 68 60 52 59 59 63 82 70 200 MB DIV 41 87 45 26 88 118 95 68 11 58 39 22 48 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 2 3 -1 -2 -1 -3 0 0 3 1 LAND (KM) 1026 972 925 847 772 521 336 226 176 175 223 244 246 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.8 17.3 17.5 17.4 16.9 16.1 15.9 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 115.4 114.5 113.6 112.5 111.4 109.1 107.3 105.9 104.8 104.1 103.5 103.5 104.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 11 11 11 8 6 5 5 3 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 14 20 9 8 8 6 19 33 36 39 39 39 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 2. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 9. 16. 16. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/11/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/11/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##