* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992011 10/11/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 31 32 32 33 33 32 33 36 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 27 27 30 31 31 31 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 23 25 29 28 27 26 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 16 16 12 9 9 25 25 15 5 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 1 0 1 0 -3 -2 -4 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 72 79 90 89 108 339 302 254 253 228 245 360 52 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.4 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 29.2 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 153 157 159 158 151 150 148 149 151 157 163 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -51.9 -52.5 -51.8 -52.5 -51.3 -52.0 -51.2 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 5 6 5 4 7 5 6 4 5 4 5 2 700-500 MB RH 86 85 83 82 83 83 88 82 74 71 68 71 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 8 8 8 7 7 9 11 11 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 14 7 10 19 19 44 73 89 98 123 125 144 127 200 MB DIV 88 93 122 138 129 121 128 127 88 95 72 65 55 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -4 -3 -3 -2 0 1 0 -2 -10 -6 LAND (KM) 300 275 249 193 117 -39 -31 58 112 124 43 -154 -224 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.1 13.6 14.3 15.0 16.4 18.0 19.0 19.5 19.5 19.1 18.9 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 94.1 94.4 94.6 94.7 94.8 94.6 93.8 93.1 93.1 93.6 95.2 97.6 99.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 7 7 8 7 4 2 5 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 19 23 25 34 47 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 32. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. 12. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992011 INVEST 10/11/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992011 INVEST 10/11/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##