* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP102011 10/11/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 78 77 77 78 76 71 66 60 52 45 42 V (KT) LAND 85 82 78 59 48 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 85 81 78 60 49 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 23 19 17 11 13 20 21 22 29 29 26 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -2 -1 1 0 0 4 1 3 4 7 4 SHEAR DIR 132 150 169 200 229 255 276 301 304 295 317 334 347 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.5 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 163 164 167 168 168 168 169 169 169 170 169 161 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 6 8 7 9 7 7 5 6 3 4 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 65 67 63 56 53 42 37 26 25 18 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 60 76 78 77 82 61 38 23 14 -11 -19 -24 200 MB DIV 97 74 70 69 87 64 9 -20 -10 1 -21 -42 -44 700-850 TADV -10 -11 -10 -4 -1 0 6 11 7 5 2 5 0 LAND (KM) 167 88 9 -31 -47 -35 -48 -42 -74 -141 -193 -230 -317 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.4 21.3 21.9 22.6 23.5 24.4 25.3 26.6 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 105.5 105.2 104.9 104.9 104.9 104.9 105.1 105.3 105.7 105.7 105.9 106.5 106.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 40 46 31 58 19 76 76 64 14 14 14 15 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -11. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -8. -8. -7. -9. -14. -19. -25. -33. -40. -43. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 JOVA 10/11/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 JOVA 10/11/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##