* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/11/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 46 46 46 45 44 43 45 48 48 52 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 46 46 46 45 44 43 45 48 48 52 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 47 47 45 41 38 36 36 37 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 13 20 24 22 24 21 21 20 20 23 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 6 4 5 -1 0 1 1 0 3 2 4 SHEAR DIR 87 87 109 96 99 86 88 75 72 68 56 59 54 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.6 28.9 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 144 145 146 150 152 156 158 158 155 153 154 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 45 51 51 54 57 68 63 66 62 66 65 72 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 12 14 13 17 850 MB ENV VOR 88 86 89 83 73 56 64 59 56 50 59 63 71 200 MB DIV 71 50 31 69 84 87 82 27 35 28 28 18 11 700-850 TADV 1 3 2 3 -2 -1 -5 -5 -3 -1 -1 0 1 LAND (KM) 1032 975 923 836 731 504 367 280 230 250 343 367 333 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.8 17.1 17.1 16.9 16.4 15.6 15.4 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 115.0 114.2 113.3 112.2 111.0 108.9 107.5 106.2 105.0 104.6 104.9 105.0 104.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 10 12 11 9 6 6 4 3 3 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 12 15 7 7 9 7 13 38 40 43 47 47 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. 1. 4. 4. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 5. 8. 8. 12. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/11/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/11/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##