* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992011 10/11/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 38 40 45 46 44 41 41 44 47 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 36 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 19 17 14 8 1 5 19 13 17 9 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 1 -1 0 -1 -4 -1 -6 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 73 77 98 105 86 269 271 254 245 238 194 172 123 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 157 158 158 155 153 151 148 148 152 153 154 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 4 6 7 8 6 6 5 5 4 6 700-500 MB RH 82 84 83 81 79 83 81 76 76 73 72 74 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 8 9 7 8 8 7 7 8 10 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 11 27 27 30 55 77 83 95 99 107 116 115 200 MB DIV 90 126 132 123 111 121 145 135 100 68 76 77 66 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -4 -2 0 -3 0 -1 1 0 4 6 16 LAND (KM) 252 204 155 86 17 -120 -110 -55 -24 -30 -44 -44 -85 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.8 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.8 17.6 18.1 18.4 18.4 18.2 18.0 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 94.1 94.2 94.3 94.1 93.9 93.3 92.4 91.7 91.1 91.0 91.8 93.3 95.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 1 1 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 26 33 37 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 15. 16. 14. 11. 11. 14. 17. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992011 INVEST 10/11/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992011 INVEST 10/11/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##