* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP102011 10/12/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 80 79 78 77 72 67 63 56 48 43 43 V (KT) LAND 85 82 63 51 41 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 85 82 64 51 41 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 14 15 8 14 19 21 18 20 27 26 15 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 0 0 2 -1 4 7 4 5 5 7 N/A SHEAR DIR 159 170 203 237 255 282 296 310 305 306 323 342 N/A SST (C) 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 166 167 169 169 169 168 167 168 166 164 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -51.4 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 8 9 6 9 5 8 4 6 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 70 68 68 65 59 52 44 36 28 23 25 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 67 69 67 83 69 49 41 32 12 -8 -12 N/A 200 MB DIV 81 61 65 81 75 29 -2 -13 -7 -4 -37 -11 N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -10 -2 0 -1 2 5 8 4 4 0 1 N/A LAND (KM) 83 19 -33 -69 -61 -65 -101 -143 -201 -252 -297 -319 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.7 22.5 23.3 24.1 25.0 25.8 26.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.2 105.0 104.8 104.8 104.7 104.7 104.7 104.6 104.6 104.8 105.0 105.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 4 3 2 N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 35 58 18 16 13 11 9 10 11 13 11 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 1. -1. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -13. -18. -22. -29. -37. -42. -42. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 JOVA 10/12/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 JOVA 10/12/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##