* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992011 10/12/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 41 48 50 50 48 46 46 48 52 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 18 16 11 2 4 15 22 15 9 13 9 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 1 -2 0 0 1 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 77 97 98 85 54 41 242 260 253 200 157 91 90 SST (C) 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 158 158 158 157 153 151 149 147 151 152 154 157 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.1 -52.8 -52.1 -52.8 -51.6 -52.5 -51.9 -52.7 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 7 7 6 7 5 6 4 6 4 6 700-500 MB RH 84 84 81 80 82 82 79 77 77 74 75 78 81 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 22 28 23 41 62 70 94 111 123 134 129 114 200 MB DIV 105 101 87 89 88 139 178 120 107 97 109 72 47 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 2 1 1 0 0 3 9 10 16 12 LAND (KM) 204 148 81 18 -43 -133 -94 -44 -22 -43 -71 -115 -68 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.5 15.2 15.8 16.3 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.4 18.2 17.7 17.1 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 94.1 94.2 94.2 94.1 93.9 93.2 92.6 92.2 92.1 92.5 93.5 94.7 95.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 5 3 2 0 4 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 26 34 39 52 3 1 0 0 0 1 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 18. 20. 20. 18. 16. 16. 18. 22. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992011 INVEST 10/12/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992011 INVEST 10/12/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##