* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP102011 10/12/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 78 78 77 77 75 72 69 65 60 54 54 V (KT) LAND 80 66 54 45 38 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 80 66 53 44 38 31 29 27 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 10 6 10 9 12 9 15 11 19 21 17 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -1 0 0 0 7 4 10 6 6 6 N/A SHEAR DIR 164 205 231 255 268 259 292 309 306 310 337 19 N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 168 169 169 169 167 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 9 7 8 6 8 6 7 5 6 N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 65 61 52 48 46 42 30 30 28 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 55 53 69 58 53 55 52 60 51 32 -13 N/A 200 MB DIV 63 53 45 55 57 50 12 3 9 20 -26 -24 N/A 700-850 TADV -9 0 0 -1 0 10 14 7 16 9 4 0 N/A LAND (KM) -1 -30 -38 -31 -33 -23 -25 -53 -58 -52 -119 -156 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.0 20.4 20.6 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.8 22.3 23.2 24.2 24.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.1 105.1 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 104.9 105.1 105.7 105.8 105.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 1 1 1 2 2 4 5 4 2 N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 60 19 17 17 18 76 76 14 70 14 14 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 9 CX,CY: 1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -26. -26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 JOVA 10/12/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 JOVA 10/12/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##