* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/12/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 30 28 26 27 28 33 42 46 52 54 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 30 28 26 27 28 33 42 46 52 54 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 29 28 25 22 21 21 21 22 22 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 20 19 19 24 22 18 23 15 15 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 6 5 0 0 0 4 0 3 3 5 4 SHEAR DIR 115 103 109 103 84 92 85 74 78 17 36 63 85 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 149 150 154 158 158 156 156 155 153 152 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 54 56 61 62 66 66 62 63 62 63 65 70 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 9 10 10 13 19 20 23 25 850 MB ENV VOR 67 65 55 47 39 51 44 44 51 58 74 85 103 200 MB DIV 34 59 72 85 77 104 89 62 60 53 24 16 21 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 -4 -6 -5 -4 2 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 936 849 733 617 503 338 268 249 290 340 404 469 508 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.0 16.8 16.3 15.7 15.4 15.3 15.3 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 112.8 111.8 110.8 109.8 108.8 107.0 105.4 104.4 104.1 104.5 105.5 106.5 107.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 10 8 6 4 2 4 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 11 11 7 29 41 44 48 49 44 29 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -2. -2. 2. 11. 13. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. -7. -2. 7. 11. 17. 19. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/12/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/12/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##