* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992011 10/12/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 40 46 48 51 49 48 47 49 51 V (KT) LAND 30 33 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 14 7 2 5 11 8 6 15 24 27 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -3 -1 0 -4 -3 -2 -5 -4 -5 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 92 103 114 105 89 241 245 252 260 161 139 123 114 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 158 156 154 152 151 150 152 154 156 156 157 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 6 7 6 8 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 83 82 79 78 79 78 75 77 75 79 78 81 84 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 41 37 39 51 72 72 97 99 105 108 110 101 200 MB DIV 75 59 70 73 108 158 126 114 105 77 101 82 116 700-850 TADV -6 -4 0 0 3 1 0 -1 0 2 7 11 6 LAND (KM) 103 36 -30 -82 -133 -177 -166 -144 -166 -233 -148 -57 34 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.2 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.1 17.3 17.1 16.5 15.6 14.7 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 93.6 93.5 93.3 93.1 92.8 92.3 91.9 91.5 91.2 91.2 91.4 91.6 91.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 33 43 46 7 5 2 1 0 1 3 4 48 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 29. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 16. 18. 21. 19. 18. 17. 19. 21. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992011 INVEST 10/12/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992011 INVEST 10/12/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##