* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP102011 10/12/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 61 61 62 66 66 67 65 62 56 56 58 V (KT) LAND 65 52 43 37 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 65 51 42 36 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 8 13 13 14 14 15 19 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 0 -1 3 3 3 5 3 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 235 227 245 256 277 305 310 310 306 339 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 167 166 167 167 167 168 169 168 167 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -51.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 9 7 6 8 5 9 4 8 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 62 61 60 47 45 39 32 25 27 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 51 64 58 44 43 42 54 45 29 -9 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 26 51 54 64 24 -4 -8 2 -3 -17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 3 8 9 7 10 5 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -38 -36 -38 -33 -31 -37 -46 -56 -37 -96 -133 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.7 20.9 21.0 21.1 21.4 21.7 22.1 22.9 23.9 24.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.0 104.9 104.9 104.9 104.9 104.9 105.1 105.6 105.8 105.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 2 1 1 1 2 4 5 4 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 17 18 18 18 76 72 76 71 14 14 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -3. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -9. -9. -7. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 JOVA 10/12/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 JOVA 10/12/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##