* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122011 10/12/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 45 50 55 56 56 53 55 57 V (KT) LAND 30 32 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 19 11 4 6 3 3 8 8 8 31 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -3 -2 -1 0 -2 -5 -4 -2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 99 98 95 91 98 225 236 159 166 170 249 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.5 28.9 28.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 158 157 156 159 161 158 153 151 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -52.2 -52.8 -51.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 6 6 8 5 7 5 7 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 80 78 80 81 81 81 76 74 68 65 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 6 8 7 9 10 10 10 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 28 26 34 50 68 88 88 90 109 83 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 43 42 85 96 133 121 102 85 74 49 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -2 0 -1 0 -1 -3 0 0 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 40 16 -7 -56 -105 -214 -116 -115 -74 -154 -8 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.6 17.2 18.1 19.4 21.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.4 93.4 93.4 92.9 92.4 91.0 89.9 89.3 88.9 89.1 89.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 5 6 6 5 5 6 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 40 23 50 6 3 5 5 2 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 20. 25. 26. 26. 23. 25. 27. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122011 TWELVE 10/12/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122011 TWELVE 10/12/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##