* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP102011 10/12/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 36 33 33 33 34 36 38 36 35 38 43 V (KT) LAND 45 37 33 30 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 37 33 30 29 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 15 19 21 17 15 19 18 21 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 0 3 3 7 8 6 6 2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 249 272 279 281 315 312 310 319 334 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 167 167 166 166 167 167 168 167 167 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 5 8 7 8 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 55 52 48 41 35 25 24 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 56 54 45 31 33 37 41 26 18 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 35 39 43 22 -5 -12 -3 0 -32 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 6 6 8 6 7 6 3 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -65 -70 -75 -82 -89 -98 -99 -75 -74 -111 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.5 21.7 21.8 21.8 22.1 22.3 22.7 23.2 23.6 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.6 104.6 104.6 104.6 104.5 104.6 104.7 105.0 105.4 105.3 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 13 13 13 12 13 13 11 66 12 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 8 CX,CY: 2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 24. 27. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -7. -12. -16. -17. -17. -17. -15. -13. -12. -12. -9. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -7. -9. -10. -7. -2. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 JOVA 10/12/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -35.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 JOVA 10/12/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##