* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/12/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 30 32 36 42 50 50 54 56 60 V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 30 32 36 42 50 50 54 56 60 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 31 30 29 29 30 32 34 36 37 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 16 14 11 9 9 8 20 15 17 13 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 -3 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 104 93 79 98 101 62 67 61 44 45 44 63 73 SST (C) 28.3 28.6 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 155 158 160 161 161 159 158 158 155 152 151 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 64 65 66 65 63 62 56 56 53 59 64 64 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 9 11 13 18 18 21 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR 61 48 40 36 34 40 41 56 44 59 70 89 96 200 MB DIV 67 82 47 68 97 75 56 48 15 1 23 1 15 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 0 -3 -4 -5 -1 -6 LAND (KM) 612 479 347 256 176 114 123 169 231 309 400 474 536 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.1 17.5 17.7 17.9 17.7 17.0 16.5 16.1 15.9 15.7 15.7 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 108.8 107.6 106.7 105.7 104.3 103.3 103.1 103.7 104.8 106.0 107.3 108.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 10 9 8 6 4 3 5 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 24 34 36 44 44 41 44 46 42 15 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 15 CX,CY: 13/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 751 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 3. 10. 10. 14. 15. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -14. -14. -14. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -3. 1. 7. 15. 15. 19. 21. 25. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/12/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/12/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##