* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122011 10/12/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 41 45 50 53 53 49 47 49 52 V (KT) LAND 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 26 24 27 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 29 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 8 7 9 7 5 8 6 6 27 29 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -3 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 99 71 56 84 132 184 211 139 164 208 228 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 156 155 154 153 152 152 152 152 153 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -51.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 8 6 6 6 5 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 80 81 83 80 79 77 70 68 61 54 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 7 7 7 9 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 28 39 61 75 83 114 127 124 92 61 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 58 99 117 137 120 110 70 67 60 22 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 1 7 5 5 3 3 2 1 11 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1 -34 -72 -92 -113 -146 -191 -142 -38 123 321 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.8 17.3 18.2 19.6 21.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.3 94.0 93.7 93.4 93.0 92.5 92.1 92.4 92.7 93.1 93.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 4 6 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 53 46 46 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 336 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 5. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 15. 20. 23. 23. 19. 17. 19. 22. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122011 TWELVE 10/12/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122011 TWELVE 10/12/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##