* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP102011 10/13/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 17 22 24 22 19 25 28 26 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 3 3 8 6 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 294 277 282 286 317 312 316 317 358 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.5 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 166 166 166 166 166 167 168 168 166 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 5 8 9 5 9 5 8 4 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 57 53 46 46 42 32 21 18 19 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 44 32 24 16 20 29 13 -23 -32 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 24 29 31 2 -32 -37 2 -38 -45 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 1 2 2 5 4 5 2 3 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -113 -121 -131 -128 -129 -145 -130 -134 -193 -230 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.8 21.9 22.1 22.2 22.7 23.1 23.8 24.7 25.1 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.2 104.2 104.1 104.2 104.3 104.3 104.6 105.2 105.3 105.2 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 1 2 2 2 4 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 11 11 9 9 11 13 13 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 15. 24. 32. 37. 41. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -8. -13. -18. -20. -22. -23. -21. -18. -17. -17. -13. -8. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. -16. -12. -15. -15. -11. -4. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102011 JOVA 10/13/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -40.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102011 JOVA 10/13/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##