* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP112011 10/13/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 30 30 32 37 41 44 45 51 58 60 V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 30 30 32 37 41 44 45 51 58 60 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 32 31 31 31 33 34 36 37 38 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 15 14 11 8 6 16 19 16 11 10 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -1 0 0 1 0 0 1 4 5 3 SHEAR DIR 93 78 99 94 93 63 44 46 66 62 57 65 80 SST (C) 28.5 29.0 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 156 159 160 161 161 159 158 157 154 153 151 146 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.1 -52.9 -51.9 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 9 7 10 7 8 6 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 61 65 66 62 62 57 52 47 50 55 61 63 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 8 7 7 8 11 13 15 14 17 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 51 38 31 29 29 31 39 40 60 68 86 98 109 200 MB DIV 78 31 59 85 82 37 35 11 18 0 6 29 19 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 0 5 4 2 0 0 -1 0 2 3 LAND (KM) 483 355 230 175 137 130 182 251 312 378 428 536 696 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.0 18.0 17.5 16.6 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.0 16.0 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 109.1 107.9 106.6 105.9 105.1 104.3 103.7 104.1 105.2 106.2 107.0 108.6 110.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 7 6 5 4 4 5 4 6 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 22 37 36 40 43 44 46 44 40 33 7 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 13 CX,CY: 10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 4. 7. 6. 10. 15. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. -12. -12. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -7. -9. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. 2. 6. 9. 10. 16. 23. 25. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112011 IRWIN 10/13/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112011 IRWIN 10/13/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##