* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942011 10/13/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 43 47 48 48 47 43 37 31 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 43 47 48 41 39 36 30 23 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 30 32 33 34 34 37 41 45 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 23 27 33 30 31 22 26 32 58 28 15 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 -5 -4 -5 1 2 3 -15 12 18 19 SHEAR DIR 246 236 245 259 253 249 227 228 233 228 190 75 80 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 27.8 27.0 26.6 26.7 17.6 12.4 7.1 7.0 7.1 6.6 6.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 136 128 124 127 79 71 66 64 62 62 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 128 124 117 115 117 75 69 65 63 61 61 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -55.2 -55.1 -56.1 -57.0 -56.9 -56.2 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 60 60 66 66 64 54 59 51 40 45 49 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -37 -31 -31 -15 51 32 1 -7 60 81 61 52 200 MB DIV 34 47 58 61 67 73 112 111 65 44 49 -2 -7 700-850 TADV 5 8 12 21 10 10 22 1 36 19 -7 -41 -10 LAND (KM) 693 804 795 710 664 597 279 95 145 339 412 395 359 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.9 29.1 30.9 32.7 37.3 42.2 46.8 50.7 53.5 55.5 56.5 57.3 LONG(DEG W) 72.6 72.0 71.4 70.5 69.5 66.4 62.3 57.9 53.8 50.8 50.9 53.1 55.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 16 20 23 28 28 26 20 13 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 31 25 12 3 3 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 13 CX,CY: 5/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 17. 17. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 7. 2. -2. -8. -11. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 22. 23. 23. 22. 18. 12. 6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942011 INVEST 10/13/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942011 INVEST 10/13/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942011 INVEST 10/13/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)